The State of The Democratic Party

Democrats lost the election and haven't had a clear leader to stand behind— here's a look into why and possible candidates for 2028

The late shift from Biden to Harris likely hurt the Democrats' chances in the 2024 Presidential Election. Kamala Harris has said she lost because she had only 107 days to run, but that's not nearly the whole picture. The Democrats have lost to a rather unpopular Republican nominee, Trump, twice now. Trump continues to be unpopular beyond his deep base, with 39% approving of his work and 57% disapproving (for context, the average job approval rating for US presidents elected since World War II is around 58%). In 2024, they lost even more ground to the working class, people of color, and perhaps the most surprising…young voters. A growing, but unsteady economy, a shift in focus on cultural issues more than kitchen table economics, helped the GOP steal votes from groups that were seen as deep blue.

A lot of the voting populace sees the Democrats as out of touch with current and tangible issues that affect them on a day-to-day basis. Many of the moderates they lost in 2024 agree with many of the lifestyle and social polices that the Democratic ticket offers, but those all take a backseat to economic reforms.

Credit: VOX & Deciding to Win.

The numbers in red are what non-college-educated voters, swing voters, and the general electorate prioritize. Rhetoric out of the Democratic camp pushes these social issues at the top of this chart more than the ones at the bottom, which show you exactly who leadership is appealing to…the far left. Moderates feel left out in the Democratic party, and they are right to feel so; the party has abandoned many of the issues they deeply care about.

The Democratic bench is seemingly short and unnoteworthy; they lack a clear national candidate for the first time since 1992, before Bill Clinton upset George H.W. Bush. The main face of the party currently is Chuck Schumer, who will not be a 2028 candidate. 

Option 1: Pete Buttigieg

Mr. Buttigieg is the former Transportation Secretary under President Biden and Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg polled fourth in the 2020 Democratic primary behind Biden, Sanders, and Warren, none of whom will be running in 2028. Buttigieg has the name recognition required to run a successful campaign, and many view him as closer to the side of moderate, which can help him pick up many of the votes Harris lost in 2024. 

Option 2: Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom is the current Governor of California and would be the first Democratic Governor since Bill Clinton to hold the presidency. Newsom has recently started appealing to a larger chunk of Americans from outside his state, signaling a possible run in 2028. Via social media, he has fought back against President Trump and specifically his deployment of the National Guard in LA during recent anti-ICE protests. Newsom recently stated that “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.” 

Option 3: Harris Reprise

It is likely that VP Harris will run again in 2028, but this time she will have to compete for the party nomination. She was defeated decisively last year by President Trump, which may be an obstacle for her to overcome in her campaign. Voters may feel that she will be unable to beat the GOP nominee, who will likely be VP Vance

Option 4: Josh Shapiro

Governor Josh Shapiro could carry the increasingly important state of Pennsylvania in 2028 for the Democrats. He is a more moderate option for Democrat voters could appeal to many independent and anti-MAGA Republicans. Shapiro is not as much of a household name as AOC, Harris, or Buttigieg, but he is still a popular figure in the party's search for its national leader.

Option 5: AOC

Sources close to AOC have discussed gearing up for a 2028 run; however, it is more likely she will run for Chuck Schumer's Senate seat in 2028. AOC would likely pull support from progressive voters in urban East Coast centers, but would have no chance of winning the overall electorate against candidates seen as more moderate and appealing to midwestern and southern voters. AOC is a new progressive who older voters still don't resonate with. If she did run, she would be limited by the same factors that limited Senator Sanders in the past.

Option 6: Andy Beshear

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has signaled that he may run for the presidency in 2028. Beshear lacks name recognition with many Democrats outside of the south. He is the super-popular governor of a deep-red state, and he seems to focus more on economic and industrial revitalization rather than social/cultural issues. These traits can help him appeal to the large moderate base, but he would need to establish himself more with the progressive wing of the party.

Chambers, Francesca, and Phillip M Bailey. “White House Hopefuls Hit the 2025 Campaign Trail as Democrats Try to Turn the Page.” USA TODAY, 2025, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/01/democrats-white-house-2028-biden-harris/86974395007/. Accessed 3 Nov. 2025.

Kaufmann, Eric. “The Politics of the Culture Wars in Contemporary America.” Manhattan Institute, 25 Jan. 2022, manhattan.institute/article/the-politics-of-the-culture-wars-in-contemporary-america.

Levitz, Eric. “The Real Reason Why Democrats Are so Unpopular.” Vox, 29 Oct. 2025, www.vox.com/politics/466253/why-democrats-unpopular-polls-welcome. Accessed 31 Oct. 2025.

Nagourney, Adam. “Democrats in the Wilderness.” The New York Times, 23 July 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/briefing/democrats-in-the-wilderness.html.

“Pete Buttigieg Warns Democrats Can’t Go back to Status Quo after President Trump.” NPR, 28 July 2025, www.npr.org/2025/07/28/nx-s1-5475197/buttigieg-trump-democrats-election-2028.

“Tracking the Presidency.” The Economist, 20 Jan. 2024, www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker.

“University of New Hampshire Scholars’ Repository | University of New Hampshire Research.” Scholars.unh.edu, scholars.unh.edu.

CREDIT NBC News for Candidate Images.

Credit AOC Image: AOC/ Getty Images/ David Dee Delgado

https://www.wmur.com/article/andy-beshear-2028-presidential-run-question/68886542